Будь ласка, використовуйте цей ідентифікатор, щоб цитувати або посилатися на цей матеріал: http://elartu.tntu.edu.ua/handle/lib/36951

Назва: Approach to gas consumption process forecasting on the basis of a mathematical model in the form of a random cyclic process
Автори: Lupenko, Serhii
Lytvynenko, Iaroslav
Nazarevych, Oleg
Shymchuk, Grigorii
Hotovych, Volodymyr
Приналежність: Department of Computer Science Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University Ternopil, Ukraine, Ruska, 56
Бібліографічний опис: Approach to gas consumption process forecasting on the basis of a mathematical model in the form of a random cyclic process / Serhii Lupenko, Iaroslav Lytvynenko, Oleg Nazarevych, Grigorii Shymchuk, Volodymyr Hotovych // ICAAEIT 2021, 15-17 December 2021. — Tern. : TNTU, Zhytomyr «Publishing house „Book-Druk“» LLC, 2021. — P. 213–219. — (Mathematical modeling in power engineering and information technologies).
Bibliographic description: Lupenko S., Lytvynenko I., Nazarevych O., Shymchuk G., Hotovych V. (2021) Approach to gas consumption process forecasting on the basis of a mathematical model in the form of a random cyclic process. ICAAEIT 2021 (Tern., 15-17 December 2021), pp. 213-219.
Є частиною видання: Proceedings of the International Conference „Advanced applied energy and information technologies 2021”, 2021
Дата публікації: 15-гру-2021
Дата внесення: 28-гру-2021
Видавництво: TNTU, Zhytomyr «Publishing house „Book-Druk“» LLC
Місце видання, проведення: Ternopil
Часове охоплення: 15-17 December 2021
Теми: cyclic process
gas consumption process
statistical processing
segmentation
cyclic random process
Кількість сторінок: 7
Діапазон сторінок: 213-219
Початкова сторінка: 213
Кінцева сторінка: 219
Короткий огляд (реферат): In the article, the approach to gas consumption process prediction on the basis of a mathematical model in the form of a cyclic random process is considered. The prediction is based on statistical information for previous years of gas consumption. An additive combination of three components was used as a mathematical model of gas consumption process: a cyclic random process, a trend component and a stochastic residue. The first component of the mathematical model in the form of a cyclic random process takes into account the scale factors, information about which is considered at the stage of prediction. Based on the caterpillar decomposition, ten components of the singular decomposition are obtained. The sum of nine components of singular decomposition forms a cyclic component – a cyclic random process. This component takes into account the scale factors of the amplitude of gas consumption process in each segment-cycle. The trend component of the mathematical model is the second component of the singular decomposition, and the stochastic residue is formed on the basis of the difference between the values of the studied gas consumption process and the sum of the cyclic and trend components. Computer simulation of realization of cyclic component of gas consumption process is carried out in the work, and also the annual forecast of gas consumption is made. The prediction results are compared with the real gas consumption process (information for last yearʼs gas consumption was used). This paper does not take into account the effects of climatic conditions on the gas consumption process, but this is going to be done in further research, which will improve the accuracy of computer simulation and prediction.
URI (Уніфікований ідентифікатор ресурсу): http://elartu.tntu.edu.ua/handle/lib/36951
ISBN: 978-617-8079-60-4
Власник авторського права: © Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University, Ukraine, 2021
URL-посилання пов’язаного матеріалу: https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2014.893040
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Тип вмісту: Conference Abstract
Розташовується у зібраннях:International conference „Advanced Applied Energy and Information Technologies 2021“, (ICAAEIT 2021)



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