Якісні методи прогнозування попиту

Abstract

Досліджено класифікацію методів прогнозування попиту. Зосереджено увагу на якісних методах, які включають: метод експертних оцінювань (метод Дельфи, мозкового штурму), метод опитування, метод сценаріїв. Запропоновано етапи проведення прогнозування за допомогою методу експертних оцінювань. Зазначено, як проводиться вибір експертів та формули визначення коефіцієнта рівня їх компетентності.

In today's market environment, corporations face fierce competition, which is the driving force of the market. Commodity producers are struggling for their own market share, as well as for their consumer. Constant monitoring of the needs, tastes and desires of the potential buyer has become the basis of the marketing activities of enterprises. These results form the strategic work of the enterprise. The assessment of consumer demand plays an important role in its forecasting. The company is planning its own product and sales policy thanks to the forecasting of the future sales, which will cause positive financial results. There are many approaches to the classification of methods for forecasting sales, mainly researches conducted by foreign scientists. In this paper, several variants of this classification are presented. In this article the classification of methods of forecasting demand is investigated. All methods are divided into qualitative and quantitative. Quantitative forecasting methods include trend extrapolation, a method for determining “slippery” mean index and a seasonal analysis. In this article the attention is focused on qualitative methods, which include: the method of expert marks (Delphi method, brainstorming), survey method, scenario method. Suggested stages of forecasting are held using the expert marks method. In this article it is also specified the way the experts choice is conducted, and the formula for determining the coefficient of competence level. Consequently, due to high-quality forecasting of consumer demand, the company forms its strategic position in the market