Проциклічна валютна політика в умовах доларизації економіки України

Abstract

Розглянуто та проаналізовано валютну політику органів монетарного регулювання в умовах високого рівня доларизації економіки України. Розкрито механізм впливу проциклічної валютної політики на доларизацію. Запропоновано методи коригування проциклічних ефектів доларизації. Аналіз засвідчив співрозмірність і кореляцію шоків валютних інтервенцій та доларизації. Сальдо валютних інтервенцій характеризує проциклічний характер валютної політики, адже чим більше Національний банк України продає на міжбанківському ринку валюти, що відображається від’ємними показниками амплітуди, тим швидшими темпами і сильніше зростає рівень доларизації.

The growth of the international movement of capital for the last decade which are mostly denominated in hard currencies resulted in the processes of currency and assets substitution in the national financial systems. The currency policy of monetary institutions in conditions of high dollarization of the Ukrainian economy is examined and analyzed in the article. The mechanism of the procyclical currency policy impact on the dollarization is explained and the methods of adjustment of the procyclical effects of dollarization are suggested. In the conditions of positive current account balance a slight, but still growing external debt of Ukraine in 2004 – 2005, 2008 – 2009 which is a distinct feature of the procyclical monetary policy is observed. External debt during 2008 – 2009 increased by 32.66 billion U.S. dollars contrary to passive current account balance which declined only by 11.198 billion U.S. dollars. Therefore, we can conclude that the procyclical government policy is taking place. The close correlation of the balance of payments (current account) and external debt has the character of conditionality. In case of cyclical deficits the institutions of monetary regulation ensure stability of the financial system by means of external borrowing concerning the future perspective of their cancellation through cyclical surpluses. Unfortunately, this mechanism is not present in the actions, strategies, policies and tactics of the debt management of the national institutions of currency regulation. The analysis has showed a correlation between currency shocks of interventions and dollarization. Foreign exchange interventions are aimed at reducing the sinusoidal fluctuations of the exchange rate and their balance is determined mathematically as the difference between buying (+) and selling currencies (-) on a certain date and period. The balance of currency interventions characterize the procyclical nature of monetary policy, because when the National Bank of Ukraine sells more on the interbank currency market, the level of dollarization increases at a more powerful and rapid rate.